I've been a gambler within horse racing for over 30-years. In that time I have learned a lot. I am not one of these gamblers who stay at the same stage of knowledge as I started. It's like someone going to university and they haven't learned one thing over that period of time.
It takes some believing to think that is possible.
Perhaps it isn't possible. Sure, that bloke learned a thing or two. But did he graduate? He could have with some effort, learning, tests and over time the task is achieved.
Can you use your knowledge of horse racing to pre empt a horse being backed? If so, you may want to keep it close to your chest, and not too interested in telling me your way to make money.
'That horse is 4/1, but I'm confident it will be backed to 9/4.'
Money in the bank.
I guess we all have thoughts, theories or even practices to do with this. You may have the skill to do this on a regular basis. If so, you really have found something that very few people can rely.
I've seen many horses I am convinced will be backed. A brilliant bet at 10/1. I am confident it will win. Surely, it will be backed to 5/1. Not only will this add to your confidence but it may even give you the opportunity to lay off the bet to a guaranteed win or a no-lose bet because you cover your stake.
However, there have been many times when I have been convinced a horse will be backed and you can guess what happens.
It drifts in the betting. I snowballs as the layers feel it is a loser and doubles in price. There's you looking at the beast behind the stalls convinced something negative is going on. It's lost a leg. The jockey is sitting the wrong way around. It's sweating so much that your bay colt is now white all over. Whatever you may imagine, it is coming to fruition. However, you note your horse looks pretty happy. No physical deformities. The jockey even has a smile on his face and all is good with the world.
You're still concerned that the 10/1 you thought would be backed to 5/1, it's now 20/1 and rocketing out in price like no ones business.
I know one thing, the thought it would be backed was about as wrong as it gets.
I want the race. The horse wins. I felt justified in my opinion that it should have been backed.
But what does any of this means?
The only way I know for sure a horse is going to be substantially backed is if someone tells me they are going to bet £10,000. That sort of money would even move a favourite southwards. If it was a 10/1 shot it would probably shorted the odds by half. I guess it depends what the layers think and how confident they are feeling about getting the horse beaten.
I am pretty sure there are traders on the betting exchanges whoa re pretty confident they know the market enough to say: 'This horse is likely to keep being backed!' Or 'It will keep drifting like a barge.'
Perhaps they do, perhaps they don't.
I'm confident that many do and make good money from it. As my approach to betting is more about a traditional bet, I don't really employ any trader techniques. It may help me if I do.
In ways, the dream approach to horse racing betting is being confident or guaranteed the horse you bet will shorted in odds. The elusive 'value' seen before your eyes.
Do you know an approach or system that works?
Photo: Jason Coote (Copyright 2023) All Rights Reserved