Professional Gambler: Understanding Horse Trainers

Horse Trainers really do come in every shape and size. From the one-man band who breeds, trains and rides their horse to the giant stables who literally train hundreds of horses. My niche is two-year-old horse racing. It's a subject I have followed for 30+ years. In fact, it is my chosen subject if I was ever to go on Mastermind! 

I'd be good on my chosen subject and fail miserably on the general knowledge. 

I guess we all have our favourite horse trainers. To be fair I have favourites who are both big and small stables. Part of your gambling success is to understanding horse trainers. This is most likely data driven. Using the Racing Post you are able to look at any horse trainer data for many aspect such a jockey, course, distance and many others. It is enough to help you find a few gems of knowledge. In this modern era there is very little information which isn't available. It's a far cry from the old days of horse racing when you couldn't even watch live horse racing and you had to listen to a Tannoy (radio system). If you had the information at hand these days and went back in time you'd be viewed as the font of all wisdom. Akin to an alien life-form who simply knows 'everything'. 

What I'm saying is use the information at hand. Why? Because most punters are so lazy they just don't bother. They just can't be asked to dig a little deeper. I'm not saying every punter is the same as some go the extra mile or a real anorak. Who do you think is going to be the most successful?

Two-year-old horse trainers really do go from those who are consistent and dependable to those who simply cannot train a winner and unlikely to ever do so. I do say: 'If anyone trains long enough they will get a good horse!' That has proven to be the case for those who have been banging their head against a wall for decades. 

A lot of smaller horse trainers can win races. Some can and some can't. It shouldn't take too much time to appreciate the wheat from the chaff. 

If you find a small trainer who gets a decent horse (usually from a noted owner) they can make very good bets. Often slipping under the radar at big odds. While a few horse trainers simply don't appeal at all. 

To be fair, some of the larger horse trainers don't give me confidence. I don't really like to point them out but they shouldn't be afraid of their results or strike rate. I do have something of a hatred for Tim Easterby's two-year-olds on debut and there after. Although 50% of all his debut winners won in the month of April. I had someone ask: 'Should I bet on all his debutantes in April?' No. 

I like new horse trainers as they can often go very well. Keep an eye on their results. If they show promise take a closer look. You will often find they have a decent owner who has money to spend. Some owners are very selective giving the impression they don't keep horses in training unless they think they are up to winning a race. For example, Warren Greatex has done well this two-year-old season with owners Jim & Claire Limited. As the trainer said: 'Most of their horses improve a lot for the debut run.' It isn't a surprise to consider betting on them second start. 

There are literally 200+ two-year-old horse trainers. 

A number of power houses. You know who I am talking about. But this doesn't mean you should rest on their laurels (or yours). Because over time the standard of horse trainers can go in two directions: up or down (most, to be fair, will remain the same and predictable which is good news for you). It is crucial you know if a horse trainer is on the decline. For example, John Gosden's juveniles have been slightly lesser standard over the last two years. It may be a blip but when bookmakers are pricing them as stronger contenders than they may be you need to know (whether backer or layer). Similarly, James Tate has much fewer juveniles in his stable than previous years. It is worth knowing how these things work because they have implications. 

The best way to understand a horse trainer is to follow them closely. Know how they think. Most trainers are creatures of habit. They train a certain horse, a certain way. They are very predictable and the data proves this point. 

Sure, as I said, some get better and some get worse. This is progressive. But you should know what is happening. 

Perhaps you don't have enough time to follow every two-year-old horse trainer. It is a lot of work to know all their runners. Personally, I update each juveniles for every two-year-old trainer so I can see how they fare each and every year. In fact, I use this data to dig deeper and learn things that most punters have no understanding. 

You don't want to know the same stuff as 99% of the population? Dig a little deeper and you will know more than the 99% and be the man who sits on the top of the hill in the 1% club. 

It is quite amazing how little most people know about a horse trainer. For example, some have a favourite track. They simple don't send a two-year-old horse to the track without fancying it to go well. The other side of the coin, some have sent 100+ horses to a given course and never had a winner. 

Anyway, you can see from this basic article that you need to understand horse trainers. Naturally, you want to know more and follow your passion. To be a successful gambler you don't need to be the best punter on Earth. The point is simple, you just need to be a little better than most. 

Good luck.